A lot has been written and said about horses that throw in a clinker in the race following their top effort. When a horse races very hard and scores its highest speed determine in its career handicappers fear that it would possibly bounce in its next race and run poorly. It does happen, however like everything else in horse racing there are several reasons and understanding them will make it easier to to deal with this situation in your handicapping.
To begin with, let’s think about what causes a horse to bounce. Horses do not read the racing form and don’t care what their speed score was of their last race. They are all about how they feel. That’s what matters to the horse. They must be physically fit and rested earlier than a race and so they should also be mentally fit. What’s going on within the horse’s head could be very important.
If the superior effort in its previous race tired the horse badly it could take months earlier than it rebounds physically. Naturally, young horses bounce back higher physically than older horses do, however that is not necessarily true of their mental state. A horse that raced its heart out and misplaced may not want to try to win again. When a horse loses to a superior horse despite its best effort it does matter.
They might not do a number of thinking, however they’re herd animals and establish their social position by way of their ability and will. That will might undergo a direct hit if a horse was overwhelmed despite trying very hard. An older horse could not care as much because it knows its place and also knows that one other race is always coming along to determine itself. How can a trainer know that the horse has misplaced confidence or need?
Sadly, for trainer and handicapper alike, that information would not always come out until after the race has started. Generally a horse will give clues to its mental condition and generally it won’t. If a horse is not consuming sufficient after a big race, that’s a bad sign. It usually means it needs a while off and a chance to regroup. Good trainers realize that and will let the horse rest.
The handicapper should be wary of any horse that had a big race, however that doesn’t imply it must be disregarded as a potential winner. If the trainer has let it rest since its last race and it seems sharp and ready in the paddock it may be price a try. A drop at school, however, is not necessarily a superb sign or a reason to bet on that horse.
I might quite see a horse that raced hard introduced back on the same level. A drop at school may imply the trainer knows the horse is not fit to win because it is likely to bounce. Following trainers and understanding their moves will make it easier to to figure that out.
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